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2020-01-30
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace;
In the past two years, the Russian public's appetite for change has increased considerably. A small but growing group of Russians blame President Vladimir Putin for the country's problems, and his capacity to deliver change is now being questioned. Yet the demands for change are taking very different forms, not only in open protests but also through latent discontent, and the public has not identified a specific alternative leader as a potential agent of change.In July 2019, the Carnegie Moscow Center and the Levada Center, Russia's main independent polling agency, conducted a third poll in two years asking 1,600 Russians about their readiness for change. The results show some striking new trends. A total of 59 percent of respondents—17 percent more than two years before—said that the country needed "decisive comprehensive change" (see Figure 1). The Russian publication of this research in November 2019 attracted a lot of attention from the media and political class. An answer came in January 2020 in a form of constitutional changes and the resignation of the government. In his annual address on January 15, Vladimir Putin said: "Our society is clearly calling for change. People want development. . . . The pace of change must be expedited every year and produce tangible results in attaining worthy living standards that would be clearly perceived by the people. And, I repeat, they must be actively involved in this process."
2019-02-01
CAF Russia;
This Russia Giving 2019 report is one of an international series, produced across the CAF GlobalAlliance, a world-leading network of organisations working at the forefront of philanthropy and civil society.The series also includes reports covering Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, India, South Africa, the United States,and the UK.This is the second edition of this unique collection of country reports.For additional information: https://www.cafonline.org/about-us/research/caf-international-research-hub
2019-10-01
CNA Analysis & Solutions;
In this CNA occasional paper, Aleksei Ramm, one of Russia's leading military journalists, discusses the evolution and modernization of the Russian Army over the past decade. This report examines the major reforms that redefined the Army's mission and capabilities, including the dramatic reconfiguration of the service's organizational relationships and management system and the extensive modernization of weaponry, C4ISR, and other capabilities. The paper outlines the evolution of Russian Army military technology and the associated changes in how the ground forces execute their tactics, techniques, and procedures today. The report also discusses the implications of these changes for the future operational readiness of the Russian military.
2018-03-27
National Research University Higher School of Economics;
In the 1960s Mancur Olson and Samuel Huntington suggested that the positive correlation between per capita income and the level of sociopolitical destabilization that they detected for low and middle income countries might be partly accounted for by the growth of the inequality associated with the economic and technological development in these countries. The empirical tests we perform generally support this hypothesis, but they also identify certain limits for such an explanation. Our tests reveal for low and middle income countries a statistically significant correlation between GDP per capita and the economic inequality levels, butthis correlation is not particularly strong. Earlier we found for the same countries significantlystronger positive correlations between GDP per capita and some important components of sociopolitical destabilization, such as the intensity of political assassinations, general strikes and anti-government demonstrations. It is quite clear that the strong association betweenthe increase in the intensity of these components of sociopolitical destabilization and GDP per capita growth, can be explained by a much weaker tendency toward the growth of economicin equality only partly. In addition, our empirical tests suggest the presence of a certain threshold level of about 40 points on the Gini scale, after crossing which one can expect a radical increase in levels of sociopolitical destabilization in general, and the intensity of terrorist acts / guerrilla warfare and anti-government demonstrations in particular. According to the World Bank, the value of the Gini coefficient for Russia is now just in this zone, whichsuggests that the further growth of inequality in Russia could lead to an abrupt increase inpolitical destabilization.
2018-03-27
Uchitel Publishing House;
The paper discusses some aspects of integration of different regions and societies in the course of historical globalization. Within historical globalization one can observe a close correlation between such important processes as technological transformations, urbanization, political integration, struggle for political hegemony, etc. In the paper we analyze these correlations to associate historical globalization with phases of expansion. Within the expansion process we point out seven levels from the local level through the planetary one. The most significant changes were associated with crucial technological breakthroughs, or production revolutions, and other related transformations like the Urban Revolution. The latter can be regarded as a phase transition of the Afroeurasian world-system to a qualitatively new level of complexity. There are also several periods which one can define as landmarks in the world-system history. The paper also offers some theoretical ideas about cycles of divergence and convergence.
2018-03-03
Routledge;
Recent years and months have evidenced an increase in deflationary phenomena.The present article defines the reasons for the problem, explains the irregularity ofthe inflation–deflation processes in the world and forecasts on this basis that thecrisis-depressive phase of development in the global economy will continue fora relatively long time. Based on an analysis of available resources and the theoryof long cycles, we believe that in the next 5–10 years, the global economy willcontinue being in the crisis-depression phase with rather sluggish and weak rises.The article also offers some forecasts for the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave(2020–the 2060/70s), identifies its possible technological basis, and discussespossible consequences of the forthcoming technological transformations.
2018-01-01
Alliance Magazine;
The report provides an overview of the current state of philanthropy in Russia, based on conversations with people who have been working to promote, support or strengthen different areas of philanthropy. Our aim is to shine a light on new ideas and innovations, and the implications of these for the future role of philanthropy. We hope this will enable us to better address the questions: what is the role and purpose of philanthropy and how do we build a supportive ecosystem for it?
2017-07-01
Arcus Foundation;
At the request of Arcus Foundation program staff and members of the Russia Freedom Fund (RFF) Advisory Committee, an evaluation was conducted to assess the effectiveness and impact of the activities and outcomes of the Fund from its inception in 2014 through its most recent grantmaking cycle in late 2016.
2017-05-04
National Research University Higher School of Economics;
In the 1960s Mancur Olson and Samuel Huntington suggested that the positive correlationbetween per capita income and the level of sociopolitical destabilization that they detectedfor low and middle income countries might be partly accounted for by the growth of the inequalityassociated with the economic and technological development in these countries. Theempirical tests we perform generally support this hypothesis, but they also identify certainlimits for such an explanation. Our tests reveal for low and middle income countries a statisticallysignificant correlation between GDP per capita and the economic inequality levels, butthis correlation is not particularly strong. Earlier we found for the same countries significantlystronger positive correlations between GDP per capita and some important components ofsociopolitical destabilization, such as the intensity of political assassinations, general strikesand anti-government demonstrations. It is quite clear that the strong association betweenthe increase in the intensity of these components of sociopolitical destabilization and GDPper capita growth, can be explained by a much weaker tendency toward the growth of economicinequality only partly. In addition, our empirical tests suggest the presence of a certainthreshold level of about 40 points on the Gini scale, after crossing which one can expect aradical increase in levels of sociopolitical destabilization in general, and the intensity of terroristacts / guerrilla warfare and anti-government demonstrations in particular. Accordingto the World Bank, the value of the Gini coefficient for Russia is now just in this zone, whichsuggests that the further growth of inequality in Russia could lead to an abrupt increase inpolitical destabilization.
2017-05-05
Oxford University Press;
In 1937, the Japanese economist Kaname Akamatsu discovered specific links between therise and decline of the global peripheries. Akamatsu's theory of development describescertain mechanisms whose working results in the narrowing of the gap between the levelof development of the economy of developing and developed countries, and, thus, in there-structuring of the relationships between the global core and the global periphery.Akamatsu developed his model on the basis of his analysis of the economic developmentof Japan before World War II, with a special emphasis on the development of the Japanesetextile industry. Akamatsu's catch-up development includes three phases: import ofgoods, organization of the production of previously imported products, and export ofthose goods. This model proved to be productive for analyzing the development of manyother developing countries, especially in East Asia, making the theory of flying geesepopular among the economists of these countries, as well as the whole world. The "flyinggeese" model produces certain swings that may be denoted as Akamatsu waves.Akamatsu waves may be defined as cycles (with a period ranging from 20 to 60 years)that are connected with convergence and divergence of core and periphery of the WorldSystem in a way that explains cyclical upward and downward swings (at global andnational levels) in the movements of the periphery countries as they catch up with thericher ones.
2017-11-13
Routledge;
Recent years and months have evidenced an increase in deflationary phenomena. The present article defines the reasons for the problem, explains the irregularity ofthe inflation–deflation processes in the world and forecasts on this basis that the crisis-depressive phase of development in the global economy will continue for a relatively long time. Based on an analysis of available resources and the theory of long cycles, we believe that in the next 5–10 years, the global economy will continue being in the crisis-depression phase with rather sluggish and weak rises. The article also offers some forecasts for the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave (2020–the 2060/70s), identifies its possible technological basis, and discusses possible consequences of the forthcoming technological transformations.
2017-09-27
Oxford University Press;
In 1937, the Japanese economist Kaname Akamatsu discovered specific links between the rise and decline of the global peripheries. Akamatsu's theory of development describes certain mechanisms whose working results in the narrowing of the gap between the level of development of the economy of developing and developed countries, and, thus, in there-structuring of the relationships between the global core and the global periphery. Akamatsu developed his model on the basis of his analysis of the economic developmentof Japan before World War II, with a special emphasis on the development of the Japanese textile industry. Akamatsu's catch-up development includes three phases: import ofgoods, organization of the production of previously imported products, and export of those goods. This model proved to be productive for analyzing the development of manyother developing countries, especially in East Asia, making the theory of flying geese popular among the economists of these countries, as well as the whole world. The "flying geese" model produces certain swings that may be denoted as Akamatsu waves. Akamatsu waves may be defined as cycles (with a period ranging from 20 to 60 years) that are connected with convergence and divergence of core and periphery of the World System in a way that explains cyclical upward and downward swings (at global and national levels) in the movements of the periphery countries as they catch up with the richer ones.
